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The Cable 15/30: A Free GBP/USD Breakout System


The Trading System,

This 15-day breakout system is designed to take advantage of the volatility and powerful breakouts that occur on the GBP/USD currency pair. Breakout systems are among the oldest, simplest and most effective trading systems. These systems work well because they get you into a major move on the right side of the momentum when a major market high or low is broken. The more significant the major high or low is, the more significant its breaking and the more likely the breakout is to succeed. The disadvantage of this is the more significant the high or low our system uses the fewer trading opportunities we get. One of the ways we can build a profitable trading system from the breaking of the relatively insignificant highs and lows (such as a 15-day breakout) is to make a small profit even when the breakout fails by having a small profit target. This way, even when the breakout fails the momentum that occurs when it happens will often be enough to take the market to our profit target allowing us to exit at a profit, even when the breakout has essentially failed and the market later reverses. The GBP/USD currency pair is ideal for this sort of trading system, as it tends to have the volatility and momentum around breakouts necessary for it to work.


Rules for the Cable 15/30 Breakout Trading System,

  • Go long as soon as the 15-day high is reached with a profit target of 30 pips (points).
  • Close the long position at the end of the day regardless of the price if the 30 pips profit target was not reached.
  • Use a stop loss of 2% of the closing price on the day you went long.
Or -
  • Go short as soon as the 15-day low is reached with a profit target of 30 pips (points).
  • Close the short position at the end of the day regardless of the price if the 30 pips profit target was not reached.
  • Use a stop loss of 2% of the closing price on the day you went short.

I am going to back-test this system on the GBP/USD currency pair for the original 15-day breakout system and also test it with breakout times of 30 days, 45 days, 60 days, 75 days and 90 days, each with a 30 pip profit target.



The Results,

GBP/USD 15 Day Breakout With 30 Pip Target System (22/09/1999 to 29/07/2009) -

Total Number of Days: 2565
Total Number of Trades: 762
Percentage of Days Trading: 29.7%
Number of Winning Trades: 547
Number of Losing Trades: 215
Percentage of Trades Winning: 71.8%
Number of consecutive wins: 23
Number of consecutive losses: 3
Number of consecutive wins (pips): 690
Number of consecutive losses (pips): -334
Average Size of Win (pips): 29.2
Average Size of Loss (pips): -56.2
Number of Pips Won: 15952
Number of Pips Lost: -12090.8
Win to Loss Ratio (pips): 1.32 to 1


GBP/USD 30 Day Breakout With 30 Pip Target System (13/10/1999 to 29/07/2009) -

Total Number of Days: 2550
Total Number of Trades: 548
Percentage of Days Trading: 21.5%
Number of Winning Trades: 394
Number of Losing Trades: 154
Percentage of Trades Winning: 71.9%
Number of consecutive wins: 17
Number of consecutive losses: 3
Number of consecutive wins (pips): 510
Number of consecutive losses (pips): -313
Average Size of Win (pips): 28.9
Average Size of Loss (pips): -57.6
Number of Pips Won: 11386
Number of Pips Lost: -8877.2
Win to Loss Ratio (pips): 1.28 to 1


GBP/USD 45 Day Breakout With 30 Pip Target System (03/11/1999 to 29/07/2009) -

Total Number of Days: 2535
Total Number of Trades: 441
Percentage of Days Trading: 17.4%
Number of Winning Trades: 319
Number of Losing Trades: 122
Percentage of Trades Winning: 72.3%
Number of consecutive wins: 20
Number of consecutive losses: 3
Number of consecutive wins (pips): 571
Number of consecutive losses (pips): -266
Average Size of Win (pips): 28.9
Average Size of Loss (pips): -55.4
Number of Pips Won: 9229
Number of Pips Lost: -6764.2
Win to Loss Ratio (pips): 1.36 to 1


GBP/USD 60 Day Breakout With 30 Pip Target System (24/11/1999 to 29/07/2009) -

Total Number of Days: 2520
Total Number of Trades: 367
Percentage of Days Trading: 14.6%
Number of Winning Trades: 271
Number of Losing Trades: 96
Percentage of Trades Winning: 73.8%
Number of consecutive wins: 20
Number of consecutive losses: 3
Number of consecutive wins (pips): 571
Number of consecutive losses (pips): -266
Average Size of Win (pips): 28.9
Average Size of Loss (pips): -54.0
Number of Pips Won: 7820
Number of Pips Lost: -5188.2
Win to Loss Ratio (pips): 1.51 to 1


GBP/USD 75 Day Breakout With 30 Pip Target System (03/12/1999 to 29/07/2009) -

Total Number of Days: 2505
Total Number of Trades: 316
Percentage of Days Trading: 12.6%
Number of Winning Trades: 235
Number of Losing Trades: 81
Percentage of Trades Winning: 74.4%
Number of consecutive wins: 12
Number of consecutive losses: 3
Number of consecutive wins (pips): 331
Number of consecutive losses (pips): -224
Average Size of Win (pips): 28.9
Average Size of Loss (pips): -51.7
Number of Pips Won: 6792
Number of Pips Lost: -4186.2
Win to Loss Ratio (pips): 1.62 to 1


GBP/USD 90 Day Breakout With 30 Pip Target System (05/01/2000 to 29/07/2009) -

Total Number of Days: 2490
Total Number of Trades: 279
Percentage of Days Trading: 11.2%
Number of Winning Trades: 208
Number of Losing Trades: 71
Percentage of Trades Winning: 74.5%
Number of consecutive wins: 15
Number of consecutive losses: 3
Number of consecutive wins (pips): 421
Number of consecutive losses (pips): -299
Average Size of Win (pips): 28.7
Average Size of Loss (pips): -51.7
Number of Pips Won: 5993
Number of Pips Lost: -3673.2
Win to Loss Ratio (pips): 1.63 to 1


Winning pips to losing pips ratio increases as the number of trading days decreases

The graphs above show how as the breakout time increases, the winning pips to losing pips ratio increases as the number of trading opportunities decreases. The more significant the broken high or low is, the more chance the breakout has of success, but the fewer the trading opportunities. For more information read my article on trading time frames.

To see the full details of the results of the 15-day breakout right click and save target as here
To see the full details of the results of the 30-day breakout right click and save target as here
To see the full details of the results of the 45-day breakout right click and save target as here
To see the full details of the results of the 60-day breakout right click and save target as here
To see the full details of the results of the 75-day breakout right click and save target as here
To see the full details of the results of the 90-day breakout right click and save target as here


Suggested Improvements,

There are several things that I think have the potential to improve this trading system. Better stop-losses for example may improve the winning pips to losing pips ratio, a better breakout time frame might be used rather than the 15, 30, 45, 60, 75 or 90 day periods that I have given. But the single biggest way to improve the system that I can think of would probably be to keep to a small breakout time frame (i.e. 15 days or less) with an additional check to ensure that trades are only taken in the direction of the longer-term trend. I might make such a system later, but for now I will leave these improvements for the reader so that they can make this system their own.













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